Instability in the World System

       A stable international order is characterized by the absence of actors and potent social forces interested in its radical transformation. A phase of stability in the evolution of the international system is defined as a period without transformations which lasts longer than the lifetime of one generation of political leaders in major states.
Stability of the international system can be achieved on the basis of either hierarchy or balance among actors. Some systems in the history of international relations have combined a global balance with regional hierarchies. Such was, for example, the bipolar cold-war international order. The system became fully hierarchical in the wake of Soviet demise. The basic principles of its organization will not be shattered by the destabilizing effects of the world economic crisis. The United States may disagree with a large group of formal allies and other supporting states on the immediate policy priorities, but their long-term goals are fully compatible and aligned.
The ability of major regional powers to challenge American primacy will be limited by lack of integration of these countries’ elites into the public and private economic institutions of developed countries, including, most importantly, American-based transnational corporations and multilateral financial bodies. In addition, some emerging powers, such as China and India, may become hobbled by rivalries with their peers. Small countries may hedge against the rise of China, India or Russia by forging closer ties with the United States. This will further increase American room for manoeuver and reduce that of potential competitors.

Crisis Management in Global Finance

       Attempts to explain the current world economic turmoil by putting the blame on particular actors, such the United States government, large investment banks or mortgage agencies fail to highlight the real reasons for the crisis. The fact that the crisis did not undermine trust in the US dollar or US Treasury bonds (investment in these bonds increased more than ten-fold amid the present world economic turblence) disprove the argument about large US trade and budget deficits as the sources of the crisis. In a similar vein, although the crisis took the form of a collapse of international securities markets, the prior growth of these markets, including proliferation of mortgage derivates, was the main driver of the world’s fast economic growth over the past two decades.
Elaborating effective response measures requires cooperation among national authorities, international financial institutions, as well as non-state actors, such as major international banks, hedge funds and rating agencies. Each multilateral economic or financial body has its own advantages and limitations alike. The trust in the IMF has been undermined by the flawed recipes the IMF was proposing to the countries mostly affected by the 1997–1998 financial crisis. The Group of Eight lacks credibility among developing countries and emerging economies while the Group of Twenty is unable to agree on and implement any far-reaching plans because it includes members with different economic systems and amounts of resources these members are willing to commit to battling the crisis. In this situation, the G8 could act as a generator of anti-crisis proposals which could then be discussed and somewhat amended in a larger G20 framework.
The criteria of state power in international relations have also been altered by the crisis. An actor’s influence is now measured not in terms of its ability to achieve national goals, but, rather, by its contribution to shaping a new global economic governance system.

Political and Military Aspects of the United States' Relations with Russia

       The talk of a potential armed stand-off between the United States and Russia in the aftermath of the war in South Ossetia showed that Russian-US relations had plunged to their lowest point since the early 1980s. In contrast to America, where no mainstream expert has been serious about such possibility, Russian well-connected pundits have been less optimistic. Policymakers have in any case shown restraint realizing that even if nuclear strikes are beyond imagination, the use of conventional weapons by Russia and the US against each other could have devastating effects.
However, the current psychological climate remains conducive to new bouts of escalation. Moscow is still keen to establish itself as a more independent player while Washington needs a compensation for the Bush administration policy failures. Both sides must therefore agree on consultation procedures before a new conflict breaks out elsewhere around Russia.
Moscow and Washington must spearhead multilateral non-proliferation efforts by their own example. While accomplishing a “nuclear zero” is unrealistic, sharp cuts in the Russian and American deterrent arsenals could rally other states around the goals of non-proliferation and build up pressure on potential regime violators. The danger of nuclear terrorism must not be written off by major nuclear powers as technological capabilities available to non-state groups may increase dramatically in the coming years. Proliferation risks are further aggravated by the double standards that each nuclear power is inclined to apply to its nuclear weapons seeking allies.

The Left Turn and Democracy in Latin America

       A new cycle of increased popularity of left-wing political forces in Latin America has raised doubts about the compatibility of leftist policies with soundly functioning democratic institutions. In such countries as Venezuela and Bolivia, democracy was dealt a heavy blow. However, the example of Brazil has demonstrated that traditional socialist policies, such as reducing poverty or redistributing national income, can be compatible with economic growth, rising productivity and international competitiveness.
Leftist ideas have long been powerful in Latin America because of disproportionate distribution of income and rampant poverty. However, while Venezuela and Bolivia are ruled by left populists, in many other Latin American countries left-wing governments pursue well-reasoned and relatively moderate economic policies. Over the past decade the leaders in Chile, Brazil, Argentina or Uruguay, although clearly left or socialist by nature, have shown limited proclivity towards radicalism.
The Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva has never tried out manipulative populism and has been sufficiently careful to retain effective democratic institutions that allowed Brazil to combat corruption and served to reinforce the sense of social justice essential to economic success of a developing economy. Lula has emphasized the importance of civil society in overcoming poverty and marginalization among at least one quarter of Brazilians. Lula’s two terms in office since 2002 have led many observers to believe that a larger social participation in politics and economic reform does not necessarily disenfranchise the wealthier class and stifle initiative and innovation.

Developing Countries as Russia's Economic Partners

       Russia has failed to become an “island of stability” amid the world economic turbulence. The Russian government’s rescue package has been the world’s largest in proportion to GDP. This is due to the deficiencies of Russia’s major political and socio-economic institutions that have long hindered Russia’s trade and financial exchanges with the outside world.
The Western nations are interested in engaging Russia economically to make it a robust ally in the face of global forces reshuffle and, in particular, the rapid rise of China. Russia and its corporations must not mistake competitive pressures from Western businesses for attempts at leaving Russia in the “waiting room” for good. Strong competition is an inherent feature of any sound economic system. Full participation in such system could bring Russia significant benefits.
Russia’s exports to both developed and largest developing economies, such as China and India, are dominated by raw materials while the bulk of industrial goods and technologies are imported into Russia. However, the Russian and biggest Asian economies are complementary in a number of ways. Russia is poised to suffer from a lack of labor force that can be provided by China. Russian fundamental research capacities in physics and engineering could be productively merged with the Indian applied scholarship and industrial technology.
Russia’s economic interaction with its neighbors is an example of failed expectations. Despite talk and promises by political leaders since the mid-1990s, none of the CIS countries have established full-fledged free-trade zones and customs unions with Russia. Even Russia’s closest political ally Belarus has often resorted to both tariff and non-tariff restrictions in its trade with Russia. The plan to complete a customs union with participation of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus by 2010 appears unrealistic given the earlier record of similar projects.

Contemporary US Security Concepts

The «Rogue-State» Concept in US Foreign Policy

Pacifying Afghanistan: Bush and Obama

Russian Interests in Managing the Internet

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND WORLD POLITICS

Russian Innovations amid the Global Crisis

PERSONA GRATA

Faces and Personalities

«The New World Government Was Born out of Blood...»

Winter School on the Oka

Two Russians – Three Opinions

The Taliban Is Back

What after Karzai?

SCRIPTA MANENT

Reviews

Effects of International Institutions and Liberalism on Eastern Europe
Rachel A. Epstein. In Pursuit of Liberalism. International Institutions in Postcommunist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008. 280 p.

The Internet-Governance: Steering Not Rowing
John Mathiason. Internet Governance. The new frontier of global institutions. London and New York: Routledge, 2009. 178 p.

The Legacy of the Portsmouth Treaty
Treaty of Portsmouth and its Legacies / Steven Ericson and Allen Hockley (eds.). Dartmouth: Dartmouth College Press, 2008. 249 p.

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Contents and Summaries