
«International Trends» (Mezhdunarodnye protsessy) is historically the first Russian academic journal of international relations theory and methodology of world-political studies. Its Editorial Board represents Russia's and internationally most renowned schools and centres of IR research, featuring for sure the top experts on world politics and from across the post-Soviet space as well as some leading scholars from the UK, the USA and Australia.
All articles are made freely available to readers immediatly upon publication at www.intertrends.ru/en/archive
Having no direct affiliation with any state or private institution, the journal aims to facilitate communication among scholars and educators in Eastern Eurasia and to foster their concerted effort in developing theoretical approaches to international relations and world politics. Our journal’s priorities include new fundamental trends in international relations and world economy, the evolving theoretical agenda of security and conflict studies, international organizations, the ethical dimension of foreign policy and international law, ecology, geopolitics and international political economy.
Our authors come from universities and research centers based in the former Soviet area as well as Western Europe and North America. Apart from Russian-speaking intellectuals, analysts and university faculty, they are distributed among policy makers and officials serving in Russian federal and regional government bodies, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation.
Nearly fifteen years we have been building, in Russia and CIS countries, an autonomous scholarly community of individual political scientists and experts on international policy and security. We are less focused on institutions and more concerned with network-building among individuals – male and female, Russian and non-Russian, younger and mature. Russia's academic community now gradually abandon their dependence on bureaucratic structures, as scholars learn to rely upon each other instead of remaining tied up by their formal job affiliations.
Our alumni network now embraces over 500 younger scholars and university professors from 60 cities of the Russian Federation and 7 CIS countries. We are making clear progress in our publications, all of which are made available at the web site.
Current issue
REALITY AND THEORY
The article offers a terminological analysis of the concept of “Cold War,” identifying its essential characteristics and exploring its applicability to the current global situation of 2024, with a particular focus on East Asia. The author posits that the primari criteria of the cold war include the stable dominance of two competing power poles in international relations, the parity of power between the two antagonistic blocs, the total nature of bipolarity, and ideological conflict. The current situation bears certain resemblances to the Cold War era, such as the presence of two economic and military superpowers – the United States and China – engaged in confrontational relations, as well as the coexistence of two opposing groups of states defined by their unconditional acceptance or rejection of US political leadership – the West and the anti-West. However, there are also fundamental differences, including the absence of bloc-based demarcation, the de-ideologization of the confrontation, new forms and methods of competition such as networking and information struggle, as well as a deep historical background of confrontation between the two main poles, which was not present during the original Cold War. The author concludes that the basic criteria of the Cold War are not entirely applicable to the current situation since US-China relations remain at the stage of strategic rivalry. In the meantime, the concept of a “New Cold War” provides an effective tool for fruitful research on international political processes.
The 1978–1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the subsequent crisis of US–Iranian relations significantly impacted the US standing in the Middle East and damaged Washington’s reputation in the Third World. The American leadership tended to blame, if not the entire situation, at least the “hand of Moscow” for its escalation. Anti-Soviet propaganda in the American media and the alarmist attitude of the US political leadership became even more pronounced after the Soviet troops entered Afghanistan at the end of December 1979. These circumstances contributed to a renewed round of bipolar confrontation and revived cliches about the “inevitability of the Soviet threat” and “natural expansionism of Russians.” Meanwhile, the Soviet leadership was interested in encouraging the Iranian authorities to pursue their anti-American course, yet it had no aggressive aspirations towards Iran. Moscow was wary of a US invasion of Iran and the proliferation of American armed forces in the Persian Gulf. Based on documents from the Russian State Archive of Modern History (RGANI), as well as available published and digitized sources from US government and intelligence agencies, the article shows that the perception of the USSR as a “threat” became an important element of the Carter administration's policy. The article substantiates the following conclusions: 1) the plans developed during the acute phase of the crisis period to repel a potential Soviet invasion of Iran extended far beyond the regional confrontation; 2) the leading role in developing the conceptual framework for crystallizing the “Soviet threat” and preparing responses belonged to Zb. Brzezinski, Presidential Adviser on National Security, who introduced the idea of horizontal (“geographical”) escalation in September 1980; 3) the US overestimated the “Soviet threat” to the detriment of Islamic fundamentalism. The political potential of the Khomeini regime, the ideological integrity, self-sufficiency and civilizational ambition of radical Islam were not adequately evaluated at this stage.
With the rise in civil conflicts, thirdparty interventions aimed at protecting and advancing national interests have become common. However, despite potential benefits, such interventions can result in negative reputational and material consequences for the intervening party. As such, decisions to intervene may often confront domestic political constraints. This study integrates the institutional aspect of democratic peace theory and neoclassical realism to examine internal and structural factors that influence the decision to intervene. Theoretically, enhanced democratic institutions are expected to produce a moderating effect on intervention, but this effect is sidelined when structural incentives take hold. To test these assumptions, a wide range of data sources are utilized, including the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) External Support Dataset and the International Military Intervention Correlates (IMIC) developed at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). Using these two datasets, the author proposes to separate military and nonmilitary interventions in order to test for potential differences in effects that characteristics of political systems may have on them. Varieties of Democracy data are employed to measure institutional characteristics. The analysis reveals heterogeneous effects of different aspects of institutional design on the propensity to intervene. The author suggests that the differences in effects could be attributed to variations in institutional specifics, public reactions, and types of intervention. Specifically, military interventions as a result of their publicity and overtness produce special shortterm and longterm public opinion dynamics that are reflected in different effects of various forms of political behavior. Structural incentives consistently increase the likelihood of intervention, though they only partially mitigate the impact of differences in institutional characteristics.
FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE
Amidst growing confrontation between Russia and the West, the good news is a number of rulings issued by international dispute resolution bodies in favor of the Russian Federation in 2024. The article underlines the necessity to maximize the use of a wide range of legal tools aimed at upholding the interests of Russia, its domestic business and related foreign companies. It is crucial to scrap a fragmented defensive strategy of mild situational reaction reduced to a passive response to certain hostile acts in favor of a holistic offensive strategy of legal struggle in every sphere. The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) is one of such instruments. It provides for cross-border protection of capital investments of investors from some member states (including those associated with non-ECT countries) in the territories of other countries. The authors posit that the ECT can be practically applied to secure infrastructural energy investments in the Nord Streams destroyed by the explosion in the fall of 2022. It is particularly suitable for inducing the countries whose maritime spaces harbor the pipelines to reimburse the multi-billion-dollar material damage caused by the sabotage, as well as to disclose the information carefully concealed about the incident. The Treaty can also be employed as a lever for further negotiations on a package settlement of all the problems that have arisen between Russia and the West.
CATCHING A TREND
The challenges of the global economy and geopolitical risks have exposed the problems of slowing economic growth and required a rethinking of approaches to curbing inflation. Monetary authorities in advanced economies are forced to adjust to the transition from ultralow interest rates to their significant growth against the backdrop of high public debt, and in developing countries they are forced to continue to look for tools to stimulate business activity in the face of high inflation and interest rates. At the same time, the methods of monetary regulation sometimes do not give the expected results, and the approaches tested in the last century turn out to be insufficiently effective. At the same time, a number of large countries, including Russia, are under severe sanctions restrictions, the history of which is far from its logical conclusion. In this regard, the discussion about stimulating economic growth without compromising financial stability is one of the most relevant and acute. The essence of the problem is as follows: the priority of one of the opposites of the abovementioned dilemma negates the achievement of the goals of the other. The resolution of this contradiction lies in the search for a compromise and extraordinary solutions, which are multifaceted, including the specifics of regulating the financial market and the activities of its institutions, the potential for whose participation in the economic development of the country remains far from being exhausted. In this regard, it is of particular importance to clarify the targets of monetary policy and its impact on the economy. The authors of the article came to the conclusion that it is necessary to change the paradigm of "financial stability" to "stimulating sustainable growth of the national economy" and propose to increase the efficiency of the financial regulator in Russia by separating from the functionality of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation the block of macro and microprudential regulation, as well as supervision over the activities of financial market participants and transferring these functions to an independent body. The proposed measures will allow, according to the authors of the article, to ensure the focus of the institutional model of financial market regulation on achieving the multipurpose task of ensuring financial stability in the context of sustainable growth and digital transformation of the Russian economy.
Iran’s record in maintaining and expanding international scientific relations under an ongoing sanctions regime – encompassing restrictive measures against both its national and international scientific activities – is of significant interest to the Russian Federation. However, the existing literature does not give a comprehensive account of the challenges and achievements related to g Iran’s integration into the international scientific community, especially in light of the fluctuating waves of anti-Iranian sanctions from 2010 to 2024. These sanctions cycles have been marked by periods of both escalation and de-escalation. The article examines the negative impact of sanctions on Iranian science while assessing Iran’s proactive measures to mitigate these effects, including domestic initiatives and efforts to bolster the potential of science diplomacy. Special attention is given to the typological characteristics of sanctions imposed on Iran, which had a negative impact on the scientific and technological potential and international cooperation with its participation. Consequently, the paper identifies key phases in the internationalization of Iranian science under sanctions. Factors contributing to Iran’s success in international cooperation include the lack of strong cohesion within the sanctions coalition, the absence of avalanching scientific sanctions and of sharp institutional ruptures with Western countries, the adoption of traditional scientific diplomacy, and Iran’s strategic pivot towards nations that view it as a promising scientific hub. The article concluded that the peculiarity of the Iranian scientific diplomacy model is that the greatest efforts to form institutional ties in the field of ISTC are carried out at the intergovernmental level with a rather modest role of academic sector entities (universities, associations and think tanks). Therefore, foreign participants in ISTC interested in partnership with Iran need to understand this specificity, as well as develop and implement appropriate interaction algorithms.
Renewable energy sources (hereinafter referred to as RES) are considered by the international community as one of the ways to achieve sustainable development goals (in particular, SDG-7). Increased consumption of renewable energy and government policies stimulating it are often linked in this regard to the concepts of “energy transition” and “industrial revolution” as necessary conditions for achieving the SDGs. The boundaries of such a policy are shaped, among other things, by current international law, which can significantly influence the emerging global energy system. This article analyzes the primary political and legal characteristics of the term “energy transition” to understand the role of international law concerning renewable energy sources in its development. The authors conclude that this role is dualistic. On the one hand, numerous international environmental agreements, regional cooperation mechanisms and “soft aw” instruments reflect a generally positive attitude of the international community towards RES, promoting the current energy transition. All the while, these documents aim to ensure that the promotion of RES projects complies with the fundamental principles of international environmental law to minimize environmental damage. On the other hand, “energy neutral” investment agreements, such as the Energy Charter Treaty, and WTO instruments increase the costs for states and end-users to implement this transition. The authors propose several potential foundations for the international cooperation in the area of RES, which should be based on: minimizing environmental risks, sharing “best practices” for promoting RES, sustainably limiting the consumption of hydrocarbon energy sources, cooperating with a wide range of non-state actors, and eliminating conflicts between sources of international environmental law and sources of international trade and investment law.
In the context of globalization and increasing severe disease outbreaks, global political attention to health issues has grown significantly. Consequently, health is transitioning from a peripheral or reactive issue to a more central position in foreign policy agendas. Major powers, including China, are increasingly leveraging health diplomacy as a strategic instrument. China’s health diplomacy initiatives extend globally, with a significant focus on Southeast Asia. This study critically examines China’s health diplomacy efforts in this region. It begins with an analytical overview of health diplomacy, elucidating the contextual factors behind its emergence and related terminological debates. The study then categorizes and scrutinizes specific health diplomacy measures undertaken by China in Southeast Asia. Finally, it analyzes recipient countries’ responses and evaluates the regional impact of China’s health diplomacy endeavors. The research reveals that China’s health diplomacy in Southeast Asia encompasses a wide range of activities, including participation in regional health mechanisms, provision of medical aid and supplies, and efforts to enhance healthcare capacity. While these initiatives have generally been received positively, particularly by countries with closer ties to China, concerns persist regarding the quality, timeliness, and potential political motives behind the assistance. The study concludes that despite some limitations, health diplomacy remains a crucial instrument in China’s strategy to consolidate its influence in Southeast Asia.
Announcements
2024-04-24
Внимание! ЯМНК как массовое мероприятие была отменена
По сообщению Организационного комитета конференции, в связи с мартовскими событиями 2024 г., ЯМНК как массовое мероприятие была отменена
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ISSN 1811-2773 (Online)